Barcalounge Skipper - The Red Sox Are Toast

I'm going to have to admit that it's over.  As a fourth-generation Red Sox fan (no pink hats in this household), now hopeful here in the 21st century after the brutal baseball realities of the Nation in the 20th, I feel comfortable with admitting that the Red Sox are toast.  An ambulance-squad's worth of injuries and good but inconsistent pitching have held them back from the 100 or so wins that it appears will be necessary to earn a playoff spot coming out of the American League East.

Now, the Red Sox might win 90 games this year, as suggested by Baseball Prospectus, a total that might be enough to reach the playoffs in a couple of other divisions in baseball.  But the whizzes at BP also place the Sox chances of making the playoffs at about 6 percent, and it's been dropping quickly.  The Yankees and the Rays are just too good this year.  David Price looks like a Cy Young winner, and if BJ Upton or Carlos Pena heat up at the end of the season, the Rays are going to be fearsome.  The great Carl Crawford, in a contract year, wants a ring -- and then he wants to get paid, baby.

Alex Speier of WEEI has written about the $20 million in salary and the roughly 1000 player/games lost to injuries to the Red Sox this year.  The gap right there would cost you about 10 games.  Say what you will about losing Cameron, Martinez, Buchholz, Beckett, and Varitek here and there, it's the loss of Pedroia and Youkilis -- All-Star caliber players as well as past and likely future MVPs -- that has hurt the most.  Statistics aside, as well, both Petie and Youk are home-grown guys who personify the Red Sox Way -- be a strong and steady all around, hard-nosed player who grinds it out every at bat.  But I'm not saying anything that hasn't been said before.

2011 Closer: Daniel Bard

So where do you go from here? To 2011. I suspect that the Red Sox are about ready to trade Jonathan Papelbon, who likely will go into an arbitration process that will result in a one-year contract for $10 million.  I say, trade Paps early, make Daniel Bard the closer (at $415, 500), and spend the difference on getting some arms from the 40 or so middle relievers hitting the market.  I believe the team will re-sign David Ortiz, but it isn't going to be pretty, and Papi isn't going to get the money or the years he wants.  If Adrian Beltre makes 640 plate appearances this season, the Red Sox option for $10 million kicks in for 2011.  Free agent Victor Martinez may go, but the Sox have Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the fold, and, at 25 years old, he still may be coming into his own.  Presumably, with players healthy and a little money thrown at a fourth outfielder, a catcher, and the bullpen, the Red Sox should have the means to get their win total into the high 90s again.


Here's my lineup card, so to speak, for 2011:
     C - Saltalamacchia
     1B - Youkilis
     2B - Pedroia
     SS - Scutaro
     3B - Beltre
     LF - Ellsbury
     CF - Kalish
     RF - Drew
   Starting Rotation: Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Matsusaka
   Closer: Daniel Bard


Half the team is made up of products of the Red Sox player development.  If it works out that way, I think that's always an encouraging sign.  As for the rest of the season, I'm putting my money on the Rays.

Barcalounge Skipper - PN 2.14 - 'Roid Age

I try to avoid writing about the Red Sox too often, but I’m on vacation in New England this week, and the latest scandal related to performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) is centered around Boston. As the New York Times has reported, Boston sluggers David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez had their names on the 2003 list of players two tested positive for some form of PED. Add to this, the now-Dodger Ramirez’s 50-game suspension for PED use, and the revelation that the Red Sox fired two staffers last year for suspicious conduct related to PEDs, and you have the Nation Haters foaming at the mouth. As if it’s not bad enough, one of the fired Sox staffers is Jared Remy, son of the wicked popular NESN broadcaster Jerry Remy, who’s off the air this year as he battles cancer. Talk about a family affair.

The broader question arises: Does the current scandal tarnish the 2004 and 2007 championships ? In my informal survey of everyone down at the general store, the answer cuts both ways. The championships are tarnished, of course, because everyone – including many die hard fans – would like them to be pure. On the other hand, the championships happened at the end of the Juiced Era, when everyone is suspects and few people tell the truth. The most important thing now is for Ortiz and the Red Sox to be as forthcoming and transparent as possible and get this behind them. And the best thing to happen would be for the Red Sox to win another championship. I got your PED right here!

What Major League Baseball should do is work out a deal with the Players’ Association and finally release the names of the 100 plus players who tested positive for some sort of PED in 2003. Everyone can have a chance to confess, deny, apologize, whatever -- and then move on, for Pete's sake.

If you’re a fan and have worked up a sense of outrage over all this steroid stuff, you should read Jose Canseco’s Juiced and the excellent Game of Shadows. It does help a fan to understand the mindset of professional athletes who see their peers getting an unfair advantage in a system that looks the other way. With PEDs in baseball, starting in the late 80s, the problem was systemic. Although we like to blame individuals, everyone is to blame and everyone got cheated in some way: Fans, players, owners, and the game itself.

But think of baseball’s color line -- not fully broken, I would argue, until the 1960s. Of all the players in the major leagues between 1868 and 1947, the year Jackie Robinson broke in with the Dodgers, they never had to complete with African American or Latin players. Are all those individual and team records and championships invalid because, in truth, those white players never competed day-in-day out against all the best players? After all, it was the more integrated National League that started winning All-Star Games and World Series as the 50s and 60s continued. How do you reach a conclusion as to who was better, Josh Gibson or Babe Ruth? As I said, in a systemic problem, we all lose.